Newly disclosed papers reveal that the UK's diplomatic corps cautioned against British military action to overthrow the then Zimbabwean president, the long-serving leader, in 2004, stating it was not considered a "viable option".
Government Documents Show Deliberations on Handling a "Remarkably Robust" Dictator
Internal documents from Tony Blair's government indicate officials considered options on how best to deal with the "depressingly healthy" 80-year-old dictator, who refused to step down as the country descended into violence and economic chaos.
Faced with the ruling party winning a 2005 election, and a year after the UK joined a US-led coalition to oust Iraqi leader Saddam Hussein, No 10 asked the Foreign Office in July 2004 to produce potential courses of action.
Policy of Isolation Considered Not Working
Diplomats concluded that the UK's strategy to isolate Mugabe and forging an international consensus for change was failing, having not managed to secure support from key African nations, notably the then South African president, the South African leader.
Courses considered in the files included:
- "Attempt to remove Mugabe by military means";
- "Go for tougher UK measures" such as seizing finances and shuttering the UK embassy; or
- "Re-engage", the option supported by the then outgoing ambassador to Zimbabwe.
"We know from conflicts abroad that altering a government and/or its harmful policies is almost impossible from the outside."
The FCO paper rejected military action as not a "serious option," and warned that "The only nation for leading such a military operation is the UK. No one else (even the US) would be willing to do so".
Warnings of Heavy Casualties and Legal Hurdles
It cautioned that military intervention would cause heavy casualties and have "serious consequences" for UK nationals in Zimbabwe.
"Short of a major humanitarian and political catastrophe – resulting in massive violence, large-scale refugee flows, and regional instability – we judge that no nation in Africa would agree to any efforts to remove Mugabe by force."
The paper continues: "Nor do we judge that any other international ally (including the US) would authorise or participate in military intervention. And there would be no jurisdictional basis for doing so, without an authorising Security Council Resolution, which we would not get."
Playing the Longer Game Recommended
The Prime Minister's advisor, a senior official, warned him that Zimbabwe "will be a significant obstacle" to his plan to use the UK's leadership of the G8 to make 2005 "the year of Africa". Lee concluded that as military action had been discounted, "we probably have to accept that we must adopt a long-term strategy" and re-open talks with Mugabe.
Blair appeared to agree, writing: "We must devise a way of exposing the falsehoods and misconduct of Mugabe and Zanu-PF up to this election and then subsequently, we could try to re-engage on the basis of a clear understanding."
The departing ambassador, in his final diplomatic dispatch, had advocated critical re-engagement with Mugabe, though he recognized the Prime Minister "would likely be appalled given all that Mugabe has uttered and perpetrated".
Robert Mugabe was finally deposed in a military takeover in 2017, aged 93. Previous claims that in the early 2000s Blair had tried to pressurise the South African president into joining a military coalition to overthrow Mugabe were vehemently rejected by the former UK premier.
